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Document 2316
DOCN M94A2316
TI Modelling HIV-infection among children in Quebec.
DT 9412
AU Remis RS; Palmer RW; Centre for AIDS Studies, Montreal General Hospital
Public Health; Unit, Quebec, Canada.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):331 (abstract no. PC0258). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370259
AB OBJECTIVE: To estimate HIV and AIDS incidence and prevalence among
children (less than 15 years of age) in Quebec. METHODS: We established
a transmission, progression and survival model using model parameters
obtained from published studies on HIV maternal-fetal transmission, on
progression from HIV to AIDS and survival following AIDS among children,
from the results of a back-calculation (HIV prevalence among adults),
from AIDS statistics (proportion of HIV-infections among women) and from
demographic data (fertility rate). The model was developed independently
for mothers from Pattern II countries, other mothers infected by
heterosexual contact, and injection drug users (IDU). Model outputs were
compared to adjusted AIDS incidence, provincial mortality statistics and
data on clinic populations treated at two Montreal pediatric hospitals
(caring for the majority of diagnosed HIV-infected children in Quebec)
and adjusted accordingly. RESULTS: To December 1993, an estimated 105
children have been infected by HIV at birth in Quebec, of whom 51 have
died. Of the 54 living HIV-infected children, 19 have AIDS. Thirty-three
of the children are under 5 years of age; over 80% live in Montreal.
Sixty-eight per cent were born to mothers from Pattern II countries
(mostly Haiti), 23% other heterosexual contact and 9% IDU; this is in
contrast to the estimated 86% from Pattern II countries of the 22
children living with HIV in Quebec in December 1983. CONCLUSIONS: The
number of children living with HIV in Quebec is still relatively small.
Based on our results, we estimate the HIV prevalence among Montreal
children under 5 years old at 0.27 per 1,000 or 1 in 3680. Nevertheless,
assuming random allocation, the probability of at least one HIV-infected
child in a day-care centre of 60 children in Montreal would be 1.6%.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/
TRANSMISSION Child Child, Preschool Female Follow-Up Studies Human
HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/MORTALITY/TRANSMISSION HIV
Seroprevalence/TRENDS Infant Infant, Newborn *Models, Statistical
Pregnancy Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/EPIDEMIOLOGY
Quebec/EPIDEMIOLOGY Survival Rate MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).